Here's the list of the major nominees for the Oscars this year (the full list is here).
I'm not going to try to guess the winners, because I'm always wrong (although I
will point out that I had a pretty good record on picking the nominees).  So this
is who I think should win in each category (for my best movies of the year, go to
my best of the year list).  I haven't seen all the nominated movies yet, so I reserve
the right to change my mind... but I probably won't.
 

Best motion picture of the year
A BEAUTIFUL MIND (Universal and DreamWorks)
A Universal Pictures and Imagine Entertainment Production
Brian Grazer and Ron Howard, Producers
GOSFORD PARK (USA Films)
A Sandcastle 5 in association with Chicagofilms and Medusa Film Production
Robert Altman, Bob Balaban and David Levy, Producers
IN THE BEDROOM (Miramax)
A Good Machine/GreeneStreet Production
Graham Leader, Ross Katz and Todd Field, Producers
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING (New Line)
A New Line Cinema and Wingnut Films Production
Nominees to be determined
MOULIN ROUGE (20th Century Fox)
A 20th Century Fox Production
Martin Brown, Baz Luhrmann and Fred Baron, Producers

How many Academy voters does Robert Altman have compromising photos
of?  How in the world did such a mediocre, pointless movie get so many
nominations?  I mean, one not produced by Miramax.  From this list --
which doesn't include Memento or Ghost World -- I'd have to pick The Lord
of the Rings, with A Beautiful Mind running second.
 

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind (Universal and DreamWorks)
Sean Penn in I Am Sam (New Line)
Will Smith in Ali (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Denzel Washington in Training Day (Warner Bros.)
Tom Wilkinson in In the Bedroom (Miramax)

Crowe's performance was amazing, and if he hadn't won last year and if that story
about him blowing up after the British Academy of Film and Television Arts awards
hadn't been so widely circulated, I'd think he was a lock for the award this year,
having the triple bonus of playing a real person, a "Rain Man" role, and, well, being
a damn fine actor.  But as it is, I'm suspecting Denzel Washington is going to get
the award.  I swear to you that no force on this green earth will make me watch I Am Sam.
 

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Jim Broadbent in Iris (Miramax)
Ethan Hawke in Training Day (Warner Bros.)
Ben Kingsley in Sexy Beast (Fox Searchlight)
Ian McKellen in The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (New Line)
Jon Voight in Ali (Sony Pictures Releasing)

I thought I was going to have an aneurysm when I saw Ethan Hawke's name
on this list.  The idea that I live in a world where Ethan Hawke can be nominated
as "best" anything (besides whiny, self-obsessed dipshit) is frightening.  Anyway,
I don't think any of the performances on this list were all that outstanding --
Broadbent and Kingsley were one-note performances, and who can tell half
of what McKellen was doing under that beard -- but I adore Ian McKellen,
so I'll pick him.  My choices for this category would have been Brian Cox for
L.I.E. and Steve Buscemi for Ghost World.
 

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Halle Berry in Monster's Ball (Lions Gate)
Judi Dench in Iris (Miramax)
Nicole Kidman in Moulin Rouge (20th Century Fox)
Sissy Spacek in In the Bedroom (Miramax)
Renée Zellweger in Bridget Jones's Diary (Miramax/Universal/StudioCanal)

None of these performances wowed me either.  I guess I'd have to go with Berry.
I'd have liked to see Kidman nominated for The Others rather than Moulin Rouge.
Dench and Spacek each had a couple of outstanding scenes, but not enough to
deserve this award.  I did actually see Bridget Jones's Diary but didn't review it (I
think because it thoroughly depressed me, and any review would have been
frighteningly bitter), and I can't say I was impressed with Zellweger at all.
Where's Charlotte Rampling or Thora Birch?
 

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind (Universal and DreamWorks)
Helen Mirren in Gosford Park (USA Films)
Maggie Smith in Gosford Park (USA Films)
Marisa Tomei in In the Bedroom (Miramax)
Kate Winslet in Iris (Miramax)

I don't really care for the options in this category, either.  I like Winslet,
so even though she didn't really do much in Iris, let's say her.  Half of
Connelly's performance was good; Smith was amusing, if unnuanced.
Mirren barely registered, and Tomei was shrill.  How about Fionnula
Flanagan from The Others?
 

Achievement in directing
A BEAUTIFUL MIND (Universal and DreamWorks)
Ron Howard
BLACK HAWK DOWN (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Ridley Scott
GOSFORD PARK (USA Films)
Robert Altman
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING (New Line)
Peter Jackson
MULHOLLAND DRIVE (Universal and StudioCanal)
David Lynch

Both Ridley Scott and Peter Jackson did tremendous jobs with complex,
ambitious movies, but I have to give the edge to Jackson.  Missing here is
Baz Luhrmann -- as one critic put it, Moulin Rouge may not have been the
best-directed movie of the year, but it was certainly the most directed.
 

Screenplay based on material previously produced or published
A BEAUTIFUL MIND (Universal and DreamWorks)
Written by Akiva Goldsman
GHOST WORLD (United Artists through MGM)
Written by Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff
IN THE BEDROOM (Miramax)
Screenplay by Rob Festinger and Todd Field
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING (New Line)
Screenplay by Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson
SHREK (DreamWorks)
Written by Ted Elliott & Terry Rossio and Joe Stillman and Roger S.H. Schulman

Ghost World was clever, funny, and wonderful.  For god's sakes, give it something!
A Beautiful Mind was fine, but apparently it wasn't very true to the source material.
The Lord of the Rings might have been a good adaptation of a complex book, but its
dialogue was kind of stilted at times. Shrek just didn't seem serious enough to
contend in this category, and I didn't think much of In the Bedroom.
 

Screenplay written directly for the screen
AMÉLIE (Miramax Zoë)
Screenplay by Guillaume Laurant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet
Dialogue by Guillaume Laurant
GOSFORD PARK (USA Films)
Written by Julian Fellowes
MEMENTO (Newmarket Films)
Screenplay by Christopher Nolan
Story by Jonathan Nolan
MONSTER'S BALL (Lions Gate)
Written by Milo Addica & Will Rokos
THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS (Buena Vista)
Written by Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson

No question -- Memento.  Like Ghost World, it got dissed in the other major
categories, so I hope it gets some recognition.  Gosford Park and The Royal
Tenenbaums were a tad too clever and didn't add up to anything, and I can't
even remember the dialogue from Amélie. Monster's Ball was good, but for
sheer creativity, nothing can touch Memento.
 

Best foreign language film of the year
AMÉLIE -- France
(A UGC Images Production)
ELLING -- Norway
(A Maipo Film and TV Production)
LAGAAN -- India
(An Aamir Khan Productions Pvt. Ltd. Production)
NO MAN'S LAND -- Bosnia & Herzegovina
(A Noé Productions/Fabrica Cinema/Man's Films/Counihan Villiers Productions/
Studio Maj/Casablanca Production)
SON OF THE BRIDE -- Argentina
(A Pol-ka Producciónes/Patagonik Film Group/Jempsa/Tornasol Films Production)

Since the only one of these I've seen is Amélie, this is an easy choice.
The best foreign language film I saw in 2001 is El Espinazo del Diablo (The Devil's
Backbone), but it wasn't nominated.
 

Best animated short film
FIFTY PERCENT GREY
A Zanita Films Production
Ruairi Robinson and Seamus Byrne
FOR THE BIRDS
A Pixar Animation Studios Production
Ralph Eggleston
GIVE UP YER AUL SINS
An Irish Film Board/Radio Telefis Eireann/Arts Council/Brown Bag Films Production
Cathal Gaffney and Darragh O'Connell
STRANGE INVADERS
A National Film Board of Canada Production
Cordell Barker
STUBBLE TROUBLE
A Calabash Animation Production
Joseph E. Merideth

I think For the Birds will win here, and probably deserves to.  (For more detailed
thoughts on the animated and live-action short films, click here.)
 

Best live action short film
THE ACCOUNTANT
A Ginny Mule Pictures Production
Ray McKinnon and Lisa Blount
COPY SHOP
A Virgil Widrich/Multimediaproduktions G.m.b.H. Production
Virgil Widrich
GREGOR'S GREATEST INVENTION
A Südwest Film Filmproduktion
Johannes Kiefer
A MAN THING (Meska Sprawa)
A Polish National Film School Production
Slawomir Fabicki and Bogumil Godfrejow
SPEED FOR THESPIANS
A Lester Films Ltd. Production
Kalman Apple and Shameela Bakhsh

The Accountant will and should win, although I wouldn't mind seeing Copy Shop
win either.