Here's the list of the major nominees for the Oscars this year (they'll be
awarded on March 25th).  I'm not dumb enough to try to guess the winners,
because I'm always, always wrong.  But, in keeping with my pathological
need to express my opinion to anyone who will listen, I've noted who I
think should win in each category (I'll also spare you my rants about who
should have been nominated but wasn't).  I haven't seen all the nominated
movies yet, so I reserve the right to change my mind.
 

Best motion picture of the year

CHOCOLAT(Miramax)
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON (Sony Pictures Classics)
ERIN BROCKOVICH (Universal and Columbia)
GLADIATOR(DreamWorks and Universal)
TRAFFIC(USA Films)

No contest: "Crouching Tiger" kicks their collective asses.
 

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Javier Bardem in BEFORE NIGHT FALLS (Fine Line)
Russell Crowe in GLADIATOR
Tom Hanks in CAST AWAY (20th Century Fox and DreamWorks)
Ed Harris in POLLOCK(Sony Pictures Classics)
Geoffrey Rush in QUILLS(Fox Searchlight)

You all think I'm going to say Russell Crowe, don't you?  Truth is, I'm
kind of off him -- I was so disillusioned by his romance with Meg Ryan
(the anti-me).  On the other hand, he's an amazing actor, and if this role
isn't really exceptional, well, you could consider it a delayed award for
his performance in The Insider.  However, Geoffrey Rush was terrific, if a bit
too hammy, so let's give it to him.
 

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Jeff Bridges in THE CONTENDER (DreamWorks and Cinerenta/Cinecontender)
Willem Dafoe in SHADOW OF THE VAMPIRE (Lions Gate)
Benicio Del Toro in TRAFFIC
Albert Finney in ERIN BROCKOVICH
Joaquin Phoenix in GLADIATOR

Willem Dafoe gave one of my favorite performances of the year, period.
Everyone else was fine (though I preferred Joaquin Phoenix's performance in
"Quills" over his cartoonish "Gladiator" role), but Dafoe was really unique.
 

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Joan Allen in THE CONTENDER
Juliette Binoche in CHOCOLAT
Ellen Burstyn in REQUIEM FOR A DREAM (Artisan)
Laura Linney in YOU CAN COUNT ON ME (Paramount Classics/Shooting
Gallery/Hart Sharp Entertainment in association with Cappa Productions)
Julia Roberts in ERIN BROCKOVICH

Julia Roberts.  Linney was good, but Roberts had a better role.  Binoche,
like "Chocolat" in general, was unexceptional, and I didn't see
the others, but somehow I don't think I'd change my mind anyway.
 

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Judi Dench in CHOCOLAT
Marcia Gay Harden in POLLOCK
Kate Hudson in ALMOST FAMOUS (DreamWorks and Columbia)
Frances McDormand in ALMOST FAMOUS
Julie Walters in BILLY ELLIOT (Universal Focus)

No question: Frances McDormand gave a fantastic performance, one that,
like Willem Dafoe's, inspired affection as well as admiration in me and
became a personal favorite.
 

Achievement in directing

BILLY ELLIOT
Stephen Daldry
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
Ang Lee
ERIN BROCKOVICH
Steven Soderbergh
GLADIATOR
Ridley Scott
TRAFFIC
Steven Soderbergh

Ang Lee.  He put together an amazingly complex movie, and when
you think about all the different genres he's tried and succeeded with,
it's mind boggling.
 

Screenplay based on material previously produced or published

CHOCOLAT
Screenplay by Robert Nelson Jacobs
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
Written by Wang Hui Ling and James Schamus and Tsai Kuo Jung
O BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU? (Buena Vista)
Written by Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
TRAFFIC
Screenplay by Stephen Gaghan
WONDER BOYS (Paramount and Mutual Film Company)
Screenplay by Steve Kloves

The Coens, because I liked the movie, but also because I think it would
be hilarious for them to win "best adapted screenplay" for a script that
they only pretended was based on "The Odyssey."  (The Coens said they
had considered adding a title card saying that parts of the movie were
also based on "Moby Dick.")
 

Screenplay written directly for the screen

ALMOST FAMOUS
Written by Cameron Crowe
BILLY ELLIOT
Written by Lee Hall
ERIN BROCKOVICH
Written by Susannah Grant
GLADIATOR
Screenplay by David Franzoni and John Logan and William Nicholson
Story by David Franzoni
YOU CAN COUNT ON ME
Written by Kenneth Lonergan

Tough call between Cameron Crowe and Kenneth Lonergan, but I
think I'd have to give it to Crowe -- his movie had greater scope,
emotionally and thematically.
 

Best foreign language film of the year

AMORES PERROS (Mexico)
An AltaVista Films Production
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON (Taiwan)
A Zoom Hunt International Production
DIVIDED WE FALL (Czech Republic)
A Total Helpart T.H.A./Czech Television Production
EVERYBODY'S FAMOUS (Belgium)
An Otomatic Production
THE TASTE OF OTHERS (France)
A Telema/Les Films A4/France 2 Cinema Production

Gotta go with "Crouching Tiger," if only because I haven't seen any of the
others.  Even so, I doubt any of them could match it.